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Ben Thompson on Big Tech, China, and the AI Boom Running Out of Money - [Invest Like the Best, EP.487]

Shownote

My guest today is Ben Thompson [https://x.com/benthompson], the founder and author of Stratechery [https://stratechery.com/]. Ben is one of my favorite business thinkers and I love talking to him about everything happening in markets and technology.  We go through every important company, including OpenAI, Nvidia, Intel, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon. We also discuss why he thinks it would be dangerous for the United States to win the AI race outright, what container shipping and the railroads of the 1870s tell us about the buildout, and why the binding constraint on all of this may be capital rather than compute.  Please enjoy my conversation with Ben Thompson. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.  ----- Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at ⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠ [https://colossus.com/subscribe]. ----- ⁠Ramp’s⁠ [https://ramp.com/invest] mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ [https://ramp.com/250-signup-bonus?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=paid-podcast&utm_campaign=podcast-colossus-250&utm_content=invest]⁠ ⁠ramp.com/invest⁠⁠ [https://ramp.com/invest] to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus. ----- Trusted by thousands of businesses, ⁠Vanta⁠ [https://vanta.com/invest] continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Invest Like the Best listeners get a special offer of $1,000 off Vanta when you go to ⁠vanta.com/invest⁠ [https://vanta.com/invest].  ----- WorkOS⁠ [https://workos.com/] is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel. ----- Rogo [https://rogo.ai/invest] is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit rogo.ai/invest [https://rogo.ai/invest]. ----- ⁠Ridgeline⁠ [https://www.ridgelineapps.com/] has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgeline.ai⁠ [https://www.ridgelineapps.com/]. ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant [https://thepodcastconsultant.com/]. Timestamps: (00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best (00:02:16) Winning the AI Race With China (00:08:28) Timing, Capital, and the Railroads (00:11:34) Berkshire, Google, and Absolute Profits (00:14:23) Verifiable and Unverifiable Domains (00:20:20) Aggregation Theory in the AI Era (00:22:06) The Real Cost of Inference (00:25:40) Why Consumer AI Needs Advertising (00:30:08) Compute Shortages and Commodity Markets (00:35:46) Memory Cycles and Boom Bust Dynamics (00:42:08) TSMC, Intel, and Where Risk Goes (00:44:51) The Best Setups in Big Tech (00:52:14) The Frontier Model Contenders (00:54:27) Microsoft's IBM Playbook (01:00:45) Meta, Attention, and Advertising (01:07:29) NVIDIA, Commodities, and Power

Highlights

This conversation examines how artificial intelligence could reshape technology, markets, and investment over the coming decade. It considers the forces determining which companies create lasting value, from capital and infrastructure to business models, competition, and geopolitical risk.
02:19
AI victory can create dangerous geopolitical dependence.
08:31
Valuable infrastructure can outlast financial bubbles
11:34
Lower margins can still deliver greater profits
14:26
AI can create value before it solves everything.
20:23
AI makes demand fulfillment costly
24:55
Heavy AI users expose the limits of flat pricing
28:09
Consumers resist paying, but enterprises pay for productivity.
32:40
AI infrastructure could repeat commodity boom-bust cycles
40:48
AI demand may create a prolonged bullwhip effect
42:12
AI shortages could reshape the chip manufacturing landscape
44:51
Amazon uses its operations as a launchpad for innovation
52:14
Microsoft is building the platform, not the frontier.
59:06
AI could improve YouTube margins but hurt Meta’s
1:00:46
AI could make social networks valuable again.
1:07:31
AI chips may become increasingly interchangeable.

Chapters

Welcome to Invest Like The Best
00:00
Winning the AI Race With China
02:16
Timing, Capital, and the Railroads
08:28
Berkshire, Google, and Absolute Profits
11:34
Verifiable and Unverifiable Domains
14:23
Aggregation Theory in the AI Era
20:20
The Real Cost of Inference
22:06
Why Consumer AI Needs Advertising
25:40
Compute Shortages and Commodity Markets
30:08
Memory Cycles and Boom Bust Dynamics
35:46
TSMC, Intel, and Where Risk Goes
42:08
The Best Setups in Big Tech
44:51
The Frontier Model Contenders
52:14
Microsoft's IBM Playbook
54:27
Meta, Attention, and Advertising
1:00:45
NVIDIA, Commodities, and Power
1:07:29

Transcript

Patrick O'Shaughnessy: Ramp is the only platform built to make your finance team leaner, faster, and better, saving businesses 5% annually on average. So you can stay focused on growth. Ramp customers grow revenue 3.2 times faster than the average American...