Ben Thompson on Big Tech, China, and the AI Boom Running Out of Money - [Invest Like the Best, EP.487]
Ben Thompson on Big Tech, China, and the AI Boom Running Out of Money - [Invest Like the Best, EP.487]
Ben Thompson on Big Tech, China, and the AI Boom Running Out of Money - [Invest Like the Best, EP.487]
Shownote
Shownote
My guest today is Ben Thompson [https://x.com/benthompson], the founder and
author of Stratechery [https://stratechery.com/]. Ben is one of my favorite
business thinkers and I love talking to him about everything happening in
markets and technology.
We go through every important company, including OpenAI, Nvidia, Intel, Apple,
Microsoft, Google, and Amazon. We also discuss why he thinks it would be
dangerous for the United States to win the AI race outright, what container
shipping and the railroads of the 1870s tell us about the buildout, and why the
binding constraint on all of this may be capital rather than compute.
Please enjoy my conversation with Ben Thompson.
For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out
the episode page here.
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Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast
Consultant [https://thepodcastconsultant.com/].
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best
(00:02:16) Winning the AI Race With China
(00:08:28) Timing, Capital, and the Railroads
(00:11:34) Berkshire, Google, and Absolute Profits
(00:14:23) Verifiable and Unverifiable Domains
(00:20:20) Aggregation Theory in the AI Era
(00:22:06) The Real Cost of Inference
(00:25:40) Why Consumer AI Needs Advertising
(00:30:08) Compute Shortages and Commodity Markets
(00:35:46) Memory Cycles and Boom Bust Dynamics
(00:42:08) TSMC, Intel, and Where Risk Goes
(00:44:51) The Best Setups in Big Tech
(00:52:14) The Frontier Model Contenders
(00:54:27) Microsoft's IBM Playbook
(01:00:45) Meta, Attention, and Advertising
(01:07:29) NVIDIA, Commodities, and Power
Highlights
Highlights
This conversation examines how artificial intelligence could reshape technology, markets, and investment over the coming decade. It considers the forces determining which companies create lasting value, from capital and infrastructure to business models, competition, and geopolitical risk.
Chapters
Chapters
Welcome to Invest Like The Best
00:00Winning the AI Race With China
02:16Timing, Capital, and the Railroads
08:28Berkshire, Google, and Absolute Profits
11:34Verifiable and Unverifiable Domains
14:23Aggregation Theory in the AI Era
20:20The Real Cost of Inference
22:06Why Consumer AI Needs Advertising
25:40Compute Shortages and Commodity Markets
30:08Memory Cycles and Boom Bust Dynamics
35:46TSMC, Intel, and Where Risk Goes
42:08The Best Setups in Big Tech
44:51The Frontier Model Contenders
52:14Microsoft's IBM Playbook
54:27Meta, Attention, and Advertising
1:00:45NVIDIA, Commodities, and Power
1:07:29Transcript
Transcript
Patrick O'Shaughnessy: Ramp is the only platform built to make your finance team leaner, faster, and better, saving businesses 5% annually on average. So you can stay focused on growth. Ramp customers grow revenue 3.2 times faster than the average American...

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