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20VC: Leading Anthropic's First Ever Round | Will Open Source Threaten Anthropic's Business | Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | Why Triple, Triple, Double, Double is Not Good Enough Today | Why Series A is Hard Today with Matt Murphy @ Menlo

Shownote

Matt Murphy is a Partner at Menlo Ventures, who just raised $3 billion in fresh capital, its largest pool ever. Matt's portfolio includes Anthropic, Lovable, Legora, OpenRouter, Chai Discovery, Axiom, OpenEvidence and more. AGENDA:  00:00 Why Menlo Broke...

Highlights

In this podcast, Matt Murphy, a Partner at Menlo Ventures, discusses the firm's strategic shift to back outlier companies like Anthropic, challenging traditional venture capital metrics. He explores the evolving landscape of AI investing, from model providers to application layers, and shares insights on market dynamics, ownership, and the changing definition of venture-scale growth.
05:13
AI markets won't be dominated by one player.
09:02
Owning a small piece of a huge success is better than a large piece of a modest exit.
17:59
An outlier even among outliers.
20:02
Many high-growth companies have low margins but can improve through optimization.
23:00
Open source won't displace frontier models.
28:28
OpenRouter's profitability is surprising.
29:00
Legal work requires specialized context beyond what a model alone can provide.
34:11
Series A is the hardest stage.
40:46
Deep expertise, not plasticity, is key to success.
42:09
Bay Area talent gives a 10-100x advantage
52:03
One loss doesn't define a career

Chapters

Why Menlo Broke All Its Investing Rules to Back Anthropic
00:00
Why Ownership Matters Less in an Outlier-Driven Venture Market
09:00
Do We Have an SPV Problem in Venture Today?
13:00
Do Margins Still Matter in AI?
20:00
Why Open Source Won't Derail Anthropic's Growth
23:00
Does Every Model Provider Need to Build Its Own Chips?
26:00
Why Anthropic Is Not a Threat to Legora
29:00
Why Series A Is the Hardest Place to Invest Today
32:00
Why Signalling Is B.S. and Every Fund Is Going Full Stack
36:00
Why Building a Company in Europe Is Hard Mode
42:00
Why Triple-Triple-Double-Double Is No Longer Venture-Scale Growth
47:00

Transcript

Matt Murphy: I think the foundation models, let's say specifically Anthropic, have such special models, performant, intelligent models. This can be hard for somebody to just kind of say, I've used open source with my data. It's going to be functional and p...