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TIP838: Google, Reddit, Amazon – Are Our Biggest Winners Still a Buy? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley

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After looking at companies that tanked in recent months in the last episode, Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O’Malley now take a look at the best-performing stocks of the pitches of the last two years. Google, Amazon, and Reddit are companies that generated great returns for the Intrinsic Value Portfolio, but there were also companies on the watchlist that turned into multibaggers in the past year. Daniel and Shawn discuss the patterns of the stocks that gained most in value, what one can learn from that, and how they think about selling and holding positions that went up past their fair value estimate. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: (00:00:00) Intro (00:03:51) About Google’s stock rise and valuation (00:15:32) How the massive capex changes the Mag7 (00:29:08) Why Amazon might be more attractive than Google (00:40:48) Why Daniel and Shawn decided to sell some Reddit (01:03:07) Why Remitly wasn’t added to the Portfolio (01:11:57) How TSMC, Dell, and Comfort Systems became multibaggers (01:24:09) What the future holds for the AI trade Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. 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Highlights

This episode explores what investors can learn from their biggest winners, missed opportunities, and the changing assumptions behind successful stock pitches.
02:53
Deep research creates stronger conviction.
12:33
Quality should not justify excessive prices
24:58
Strong demand can justify owning a costly compounder
35:46
Amazon offers upside with more protection if AI disappoints.
52:29
Reddit remains a hold, not a buy.
1:05:43
A changing business can break an investment thesis.
1:15:06
TSMC’s moat rests on technology and customer dependence
1:27:35
A few major winners can outweigh many losses

Chapters

Intro
00:00
About Google’s stock rise and valuation
03:51
How the massive capex changes the Mag7
15:32
Why Amazon might be more attractive than Google
29:08
Why Daniel and Shawn decided to sell some Reddit
40:48
Why Remitly wasn’t added to the Portfolio
1:03:07
How TSMC, Dell, and Comfort Systems became multibaggers
1:11:57
What the future holds for the AI trade
1:24:09

Transcript

Shawn O'Malley: You're listening to TIP. Daniel Mahncke: Welcome back to The Investor's Podcast. Today's episode is number 838. And after we just did an episode covering stocks that tanked, since we covered all of them, today will be a much more pleasant ...