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Michael Mauboussin: Finding Easy Games

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Michael Mauboussin: Finding Easy Games

The Long View

2022/01/25
The Long View

The Long View

2022/01/25
OverviewShownoteHighlightsTranscriptChaptersPins

Shownote

Our guest this week is Michael Mauboussin. Michael is the head of consilient research at Counterpoint Global. Before joining Counterpoint Global in January 2020, Michael was director of research at BlueMountain Capital Management and prior to that held res...

Highlights

In this episode, Michael Mauboussin unpacks how integrating insights across disciplines—biology, economics, and complexity science—can sharpen investment judgment, especially in an era where skill is increasingly crowded out by luck.
08:24
As collective expertise rises, relative advantages shrink and luck plays a larger role.
11:02
Investing is a zero-sum game, so investors should seek 'easy games' by competing against weaker players
27:29
Value investing means buying something for less than its worth—not categorizing stocks as 'value' or 'growth'
37:15
Real options theory applies option pricing logic to real-world investments like Amazon's strategic bets
42:10
Executives must understand stock price expectations to be great capital allocators
44:41
Value investing combines a contrarian streak and a calculator
47:16
Real equity returns are now expected to be 3–4%, much lower than historical levels
49:46
Morgan Housel's *The Psychology of Money*, Robert Hagstrom's *Warren Buffett: Inside the Ultimate Money Mind*, and William Green's *Richer, Wiser, Happier* are recommended for investors and advisors

Chapters

What Is Consilience—and Why Does It Transform Investment Thinking?
00:00
Why Does Rising Skill Make Luck More Important in Investing?
11:02
How Do You Tell Real Investing From Mere Speculation?
16:32
What Makes a Business Truly Valuable—Beyond Growth and Multiples?
29:52
How Do Real Options and Capital Allocation Shape Long-Term Value?
39:45
Where Do Investors Actually Find a Durable Edge Today?
44:41
How Can Expectations Investing Improve Financial Planning?
47:16
What Do Today’s Market Prices Say About Future Returns?
49:46
Which Books Best Equip Investors to Think Clearly and Act Wisely?
52:24

Transcript

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