How economists (and TikTok) know if a recession is coming

Planet Money

2025/05/21

Overview Shownote Highlights Transcript Chapters Pins

Shownote

Lately we've noticed that something we think about all the time here at Planet Money is having a viral moment: recession indicators! From the more practical (like sales for lipstick going up and men's underwear going down) to the absurd and nonsensical (l...

Highlights

In recent times, the concept of recession indicators has captured public attention, especially on social media platforms like TikTok. People are sharing quirky signs that hint at a possible economic downturn, from changes in fast-food menus to fashion trends. Amidst trade wars, tariffs, and stock market fluctuations, this viral trend offers an outlet for anxiety about economic uncertainty.

00:00

Examples from TikTok include Five Guys testing a combo meal.

06:03

The Somm Rule uses unemployment data to predict recessions accurately.

11:47

The yield curve is partially inverted, signaling potential recession fears.

17:30

Lady Gaga’s music proposed as a TikTok recession indicator.

Chapters

Why Are People Talking About Recessions on Social Media?

00:00

Can Underwear Sales Really Predict a Recession?

02:52

What Do Unemployment Rates and Yield Curves Tell Us?

09:04

Is Lady Gaga’s Music a Reliable Economic Indicator?

17:30

Transcript

Speaker 5: This message comes from Whole Foods Market. Save on flowers, grilling meats, and more for your May celebrations. Look for hundreds of yellow sale and low-priced signs throughout the store. This message comes from NPR sponsor Intercom. Fin by Int...