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This Is How OpenAI Goes Broke — ft. Sebastian Mallaby

Prof G Markets

Shownote

Ed Elson sits down with Sebastian Mallaby to discuss why he believes there's a real chance OpenAI runs out of money within the next 18 months, and what that would mean for the broader AI industry. He also explains why he doesn't necessarily see Meta's decision to sell excess compute capacity as a bear signal, why he was encouraged by the Trump administration's new AI policy, and how he expects the AI race to unfold over the coming years. Sebastian Mallaby is a prominent journalist, author, Pulitzer Prize finalist, and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. His latest book is The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence. Subscribe to the Prof G Markets Youtube Channel [https://www.youtube.com/@profgmarkets]  Check out our latest Prof G Markets newsletter [https://www.profgmarkets.com/p/is-this-the-most-hated-bull-market-in-history?utm_content=curious_button] Follow Prof G Markets on Instagram [https://www.instagram.com/profgmarkets/?hl=en] Follow Ed on Instagram [https://www.instagram.com/ed_elson_/], X [https://x.com/edels0n?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor] and Substack [https://substack.com/@edwardelson] Follow Scott on Instagram [https://www.instagram.com/profgalloway/?hl=en] Send us your questions or comments by emailing Markets@profgmedia.com [Markets@profgmedia.com] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices [https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices]

Highlights

In this episode, Ed Elson and Sebastian Mallaby delve into the precarious financial state of OpenAI, predicting a potential cash crisis within the next year and a half. They explore the broader implications for the AI industry, from market consolidation to the role of government intervention, and discuss the surprising pace of Chinese AI development despite export controls.
00:00
OpenAI will run out of money within 18 months
10:08
There is an OpenAI-specific bubble, not a general AI bubble.
12:57
AI progress is real and not a bubble
25:26
No strategic justification for bailing out OpenAI
34:41
Trade export controls for an AI safety agreement.
51:07
His vision failed due to competitive pressures

Chapters

Is OpenAI Heading for a Cash Crisis in 18 Months?
00:00
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: A Tale of Two Strategies and a $21 Billion Loss
06:50
Is the AI Bubble Real? Meta's Compute Sale and Market Rationalization
12:57
Sam Altman's Government Bailout Plan: Cheating Capitalism or National Security?
19:18
China's AI Surprise: How DeepSeek Nearly Matches GPT-4o Despite US Curbs
28:34
The New Nuclear Age: Why the US and China Must Collaborate on AI Safety
37:30

Transcript

Ed Elson: From the Goldman Sachs trading floor, in 10 minutes or less, investors and analysts share timely analysis on the week's market activity. The Markets Podcast from Goldman Sachs. Listen now. A lot of companies are investing in AI, but most only hav...