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Dan Wang - The US vs China In The 21st Century - [Invest Like the Best, EP.444]

Shownote

My guest today is Dan Wang. Dan is a technology analyst and author who spent six years living in China studying its manufacturing ecosystem and tech development, best known for his new book Breakneck. Dan offers the most nuanced framework I've encountered for understanding US-China competition.  We explore a critical asymmetry: it's far harder for the US to rebuild manufacturing capacity than for China to improve scientific research, with profound implications for AI, national security, and investment returns. For investors, Dan explains the "ByteDance problem"—why exceptional Chinese companies trade at massive discounts due to Communist Party unpredictability and geopolitical risks. He argues China is a "high agency" society that executes relentlessly while America deliberates endlessly, yet also reveals the societal cost. We discuss innovation, state capacity, and investing across both superpowers. Please enjoy my conversation with Dan Wang. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ----- This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Ramp⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Ramp’s mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Ramp.com/invest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus. – This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Ridgeline⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Ridgeline has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Head to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ridgelineapps.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to learn more about the platform. – This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ AlphaSense⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. AlphaSense has completely transformed the research process with cutting-edge AI technology and a vast collection of top-tier, reliable business content. Invest Like the Best listeners can get a free trial now at⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Alpha-Sense.com/Invest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and experience firsthand how AlphaSense and Tegus help you make smarter decisions faster. ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠). Show Notes: (00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like the Best (00:05:55) China's Engineering State and Social Engineering (00:12:15) US-China Competition: Innovation and Manufacturing (00:19:41) The Future of US and China: Technological and Economic Perspectives (00:25:22) Cultural and Work Ethic Comparisons (00:39:09) Investing in China: Opportunities and Risks (00:44:43) Future Equilibrium States Between US and China (00:48:32) China's High Agency and Infrastructure (00:49:58) Lawyerly Tendencies in US Society (00:53:41) Comparing US and Chinese Societal Structures (00:57:59) China's Historical Lessons and Future Prospects (01:10:39) AI and Technological Competition (01:15:30) Vertical Integration in Chinese Companies (01:26:39) The Kindest Thing

Highlights

In this episode, Dan Wang, a technology analyst with deep experience in China's tech and manufacturing landscape, offers a compelling analysis of the evolving U.S.-China competition. Drawing from his book *Breakneck*, he unpacks the structural differences between the two powers that shape their technological trajectories, economic models, and societal priorities—providing investors and policymakers with a nuanced lens beyond conventional geopolitical narratives.
09:18
China excels in scaling technology but lacks breakthrough innovation like the U.S. garage-invention model
19:02
Technology must be viewed as both a political and aesthetic project to inspire national commitment.
22:59
Chinese and Americans are the two great sources of entrepreneurial dynamism in the world
37:29
Chinese automakers are at least three times faster than US companies in bringing new models to market.
39:11
Jack Ma's criticism triggered a government crackdown on Ant Financial
47:46
By the end of this year, half of cars sold in China will be electric, reducing foreign energy dependence.
48:34
China showed high-speed coordination among manufacturers, tech companies, and the government during COVID
52:59
The Metro North train from New Haven to New York is now slower than it was in 1914.
56:40
China studied the Soviet collapse and avoided simultaneous political and economic reforms
1:04:04
China excels at manufacturing and may lead in AI and vehicle-making despite censorship and capital controls.
1:13:48
China is automating manufacturing to produce more drones, munitions, and ships
1:15:30
Xiaomi launched electric SUVs and set a Nürburgring speed record while Apple abandoned its car project
1:33:24
Kindness is an ongoing act, not a single deed.

Chapters

Welcome to Invest Like the Best
00:00
China's Engineering State and Social Engineering
05:55
US-China Competition: Innovation and Manufacturing
12:15
The Future of US and China: Technological and Economic Perspectives
19:41
Cultural and Work Ethic Comparisons
25:22
Investing in China: Opportunities and Risks
39:09
Future Equilibrium States Between US and China
44:43
China's High Agency and Infrastructure
48:32
Lawyerly Tendencies in US Society
49:58
Comparing US and Chinese Societal Structures
53:41
China's Historical Lessons and Future Prospects
57:59
AI and Technological Competition
1:10:39
Vertical Integration in Chinese Companies
1:15:30
The Kindest Thing
1:26:39

Transcript

Patrick O'Shaughnessy: The best operators have a relentless focus on leverage, finding ways to multiply their impact rather than just working harder. But here's what I see happening in finance teams everywhere. Brilliant people getting buried in expense ma...