Peter Frankopan argues that wars fought for national existence are difficult to end through force alone, comparing Ukraine’s resistance with Iran’s long-term confrontation with stronger adversaries. He assesses the costs of Russia’s limited gains, the pressure created by Ukrainian drone attacks, Putin’s denial of Ukrainian sovereignty, and the possibility of an exhausted frozen conflict. The conversation then turns to Russia’s continuity, China’s leverage and strategic calculations over Taiwan, Gulf realignment, the durability of US power, and the climate and resource pressures shaping the next decade.