RWH063: Avoid Disaster w/ Howard Marks
RWH063: Avoid Disaster w/ Howard Marks
RWH063: Avoid Disaster w/ Howard Marks
In a candid conversation with William Green, investing legend Howard Marks shares the philosophy that has guided his remarkable career at Oaktree Capital. Far from chasing glory or making flashy bets, Marks emphasizes the quiet power of discipline, humility, and strategic restraint in building lasting investment success.
Howard Marks underscores that exceptional investing is less about bold moves and more about avoiding costly mistakes—what he calls 'negative art.' He advocates for a contrarian, disciplined approach, adjusting risk based on market sentiment rather than constant action. With five major market calls over his career, Marks attributes his success to patience, specialization in inefficient markets like distressed debt, and deep partnership dynamics with Bruce Karsh. He draws parallels between today’s AI frenzy and the dot-com bubble, warning that most AI ventures will fail despite the technology's transformative potential. Skeptical of speculative assets like Bitcoin and gold, he sees value in high-yield bonds and stresses emotional resilience over prediction. Above all, Marks champions a life of balance, where professional achievement coexists with personal fulfillment, proving that long-term success includes staying true to one’s values.
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03:25
Avoiding losers is more important than picking winners in investing.
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19:01
Take the temperature of the market by observing investor behavior to time defensive or aggressive moves.
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29:19
Bureaucracy kills idiosyncratic insight in investing.
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1:00:30
AI will change the world, but most AI-investing companies will end up worthless
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1:07:07
Assets like Bitcoin and gold lack intrinsic value because they don't generate cash flow.
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1:16:27
The future is a probability distribution of possibilities
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1:21:47
Howard Marks built a career aligned with his values, doing work he loves like his idol Warren Buffett.
