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A Global Thematic Masterclass with Mark Farrington

In an era of shifting global power dynamics and economic realignment, understanding the macro forces shaping markets has never been more critical. This conversation dives into the structural transformations underway in Asia, the legacy of Japan’s economic experiments, and what they reveal about China’s current trajectory. Far from abstract theory, these developments carry tangible implications for investors navigating a world where geopolitics and industrial policy are redefining risk and opportunity.
The discussion traces Asia's economic evolution from Japan’s rise and stagnation to China’s state-driven growth model, highlighting how industrial policy replaced unfettered globalization after 2008. Japan’s 'three arrows' under Abe sought to escape deflation but exposed deep structural weaknesses, now mirrored in China’s property crisis and demographic challenges. Unlike Japan, China’s closed capital account limits its financial flexibility, raising concerns of a prolonged slowdown. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions are fueling inflation in strategic sectors, and the yen carry trade poses systemic risks if reversed. Looking ahead, the U.S. dollar may strengthen amid global monetary divergence, benefiting developed market equities, while emerging markets face pressure. The outlook calls for defensive positioning, as policy errors, energy constraints, and overvalued tech create uncertainty for 2025.
10:21
10:21
Industrial policy is back, with Asia focusing on real-economy niches while the West leans into economic nationalism
16:45
16:45
National security now drives industrial policy more than global competition
26:31
26:31
Japan is an outlier in monetary policy, considering rate hikes while others eye cuts.
36:05
36:05
China's banking cleanup success in 1999 contrasts with current lack of reform urgency.
49:12
49:12
Central banks will reverse interest rate policies due to macroeconomic mistakes.