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20VC: Are OpenAI and Anthropic Overvalued? The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10x And Usage Will Explode 100x | The Future Is Not One AGI; It's Millions of Specialised Models with Lin Qiao, Founder and CEO @ Fireworks

Lin Qiao, CEO of Fireworks AI, discusses her company's strategic bet on AI inference over training, a move that has propelled them to a $1 billion annual recurring revenue. She argues for a future of specialized, multi-model AI rather than a single, all-powerful AGI, and explores the implications for enterprise data, cost, and infrastructure.
Lin Qiao explains that Fireworks AI focused on inference because most valuable enterprise data is private and not used for training general models. She champions open-source models, which now match closed models in quality and offer cost-effective customization. She predicts token costs will drop 10x in three years, driving 100x usage growth, and envisions a multi-model world where tasks are routed to specialized models. Qiao identifies the lack of a system designed for very large models as the key bottleneck, and argues that every company will eventually own its own intelligence, similar to custom software stacks. She also notes that Fireworks AI processes over 40 trillion tokens daily, mostly from customized models, and sees potential for 20-100x growth.
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Token costs will drop 10x in three years.
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Most data is private and locked inside enterprises.
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Open models now match closed models in quality and are easier to tune.
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Specialized models offer 5-10x cost reductions at scale.
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No single company should own intelligence.
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A multi-model world with specialized models.
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Usage will explode as costs decrease.
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Token costs will drop 10x in three years.
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AI workloads are still too dynamic for durable chips.
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Every company will own its own intelligence.