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Richard Sutton – Father of RL thinks LLMs are a dead end

Dwarkesh Podcast

Shownote

Richard Sutton is the father of reinforcement learning, winner of the 2024 Turing Award, and author of The Bitter Lesson. [http://www.incompleteideas.net/IncIdeas/BitterLesson.html] And he thinks LLMs are a dead end. After interviewing him, my steel man of Richard’s position is this: LLMs aren’t capable of learning on-the-job, so no matter how much we scale, we’ll need some new architecture to enable continual learning. And once we have it, we won’t need a special training phase — the agent will just learn on-the-fly, like all humans, and indeed, like all animals. This new paradigm will render our current approach with LLMs obsolete. In our interview, I did my best to represent the view that LLMs might function as the foundation on which experiential learning can happen… Some sparks flew. A big thanks to the Alberta Machine Intelligence Institute [https://www.amii.ca/] for inviting me up to Edmonton and for letting me use their studio and equipment. Enjoy! Watch on YouTube [https://youtu.be/21EYKqUsPfg]; listen on Apple Podcasts [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/richard-sutton-father-of-rl-thinks-llms-are-a-dead-end/id1516093381?i=1000728584744] or Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/episode/3zAXRCFrHPShU4MuuIx4V5?si=74e5a07b00444b51]. Sponsors * Labelbox [https://labelbox.com/dwarkesh] makes it possible to train AI agents in hyperrealistic RL environments. With an experienced team of applied researchers and a massive network of subject-matter experts, Labelbox ensures your training reflects important, real-world nuance. Turn your demo projects into working systems at labelbox.com/dwarkesh [https://labelbox.com/dwarkesh] * Gemini Deep Research [https://gemini.google.com/] is designed for thorough exploration of hard topics. For this episode, it helped me trace reinforcement learning from early policy gradients up to current-day methods, combining clear explanations with curated examples. Try it out yourself at gemini.google.com [https://gemini.google.com/] * Hudson River Trading [https://hudsonrivertrading.com/dwarkesh] doesn’t silo their teams. Instead, HRT researchers openly trade ideas and share strategy code in a mono-repo. This means you’re able to learn at incredible speed and your contributions have impact across the entire firm. Find open roles at hudsonrivertrading.com/dwarkesh [https://hudsonrivertrading.com/dwarkesh] Timestamps (00:00:00) – Are LLMs a dead end? (00:13:04) – Do humans do imitation learning? (00:23:10) – The Era of Experience (00:33:39) – Current architectures generalize poorly out of distribution (00:41:29) – Surprises in the AI field (00:46:41) – Will The Bitter Lesson still apply post AGI? (00:53:48) – Succession to AIs Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe [https://www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4]

Highlights

In a thought-provoking conversation, Richard Sutton, a pioneer of reinforcement learning and recipient of the 2024 Turing Award, challenges the prevailing trajectory of AI development, particularly the dominance of large language models. He argues that true intelligence must emerge from experience-driven learning rather than static imitation.
02:50
LLMs lack a definition of actual knowledge and ground truth.
19:18
Cultural knowledge accumulation starts with imitation, not reasoning.
32:10
The transition model includes beliefs about action consequences and abstract experiences, not just rewards.
39:49
Gemini Deep Research helped compile a comprehensive history of reinforcement learning with context and links.
41:29
Simple basic principles like learning and search have won in AI
53:06
HRT shares all trading strategies in a monorepo to enable fast learning and broad deployment.
53:48
AI represents a major transition from replication to design in the universe's evolution

Chapters

Are LLMs a dead-end?
00:00
Do humans do imitation learning?
13:04
The Era of Experience
23:10
Current architectures generalize poorly out of distribution
33:39
Surprises in the AI field
41:29
Will The Bitter Lesson still apply post AGI?
46:41
Succession to AIs
53:48

Transcript

Dwarkesh Patel: Today, I'm chatting with Richard Sutton, who is one of the founding fathers of reinforcement learning and inventor of many of the main techniques used there, like TD learning and policy gradient methods. And for that, he received this year'...