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Michael Mauboussin Master Class — Moats, Skill, Luck, Decision Making and a Whole Lot More

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Michael Mauboussin Master Class — Moats, Skill, Luck, Decision Making and a Whole Lot More

Acquired

2021/10/05
Acquired

Acquired

2021/10/05
OverviewShownoteHighlightsTranscriptChaptersPins

Shownote

We sit down with the one & only Michael Mauboussin to dive deep into his incredible body of work: untangling skill and luck, measuring moats, persistence of returns in venture capital, decision making and — particularly timely — expectations investing and ...

Highlights

This episode features a deep dive with Michael Mauboussin, head of Counterpoint Global at Morgan Stanley, exploring his influential frameworks on investing. The conversation covers his core concepts like expectations investing, the nature of competitive advantage, and the interplay of skill and luck in financial markets.
03:15
Reading Rappaport's book was a professional epiphany
08:09
Reverse-engineer a stock's price to determine expected future performance.
12:32
Intangible investments now double CapEx.
21:58
Porter never explicitly defined competitive advantage.
33:39
Most venture deals lose money, but extreme winners drive returns.
48:05
Untangling skill and luck is key.
58:43
Extraordinary streaks require both skill and luck.
1:08:40
Find easy games by choosing markets where you have an advantage.
1:15:52
Only Microsoft remained in the top 10 from 2001 to 2021.

Chapters

Introducing Michael Mauboussin and the Epiphany Behind Expectations Investing
00:00
How to Reverse-Engineer a Stock Price to Find Market Expectations
05:50
Why Intangible Investments Are Changing the Rules of Valuation
12:32
Defining a Moat: What Competitive Advantage Really Means
21:58
Applying Moat Analysis to Early-Stage Companies as Real Options
28:57
Practical Tools for Better Decisions: Base Rates, Premortems, and Red Teaming
40:52
The Luck-Skill Continuum and the Paradox of Skill in Investing
50:07
Extraordinary Streaks, Regression to the Mean, and Finding Your 'Easy Game'
1:01:18
The Future of $10 Trillion Companies and Why Return Expectations Are Muted
1:13:25

Transcript

Ben Gilbert: yeah, dude. We should see if any listeners want to create some cool like animation for the intro music for the youtube channel. David Rosenthal: Oh, are we gonna open source it to the fans? Ben Gilbert: We gotta do it. Michael Mauboussin: W...