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AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

Dwarkesh Podcast
Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu, co-founders of Mechanize and former AI forecast researchers at Epoch AI, share their insights on the future of artificial intelligence. They challenge conventional views by arguing that AGI is still three decades away and that an intelligence explosion is unlikely. Instead, they foresee a period of explosive economic growth driven by automation and AI advancements.
The podcast delves into various aspects of AI's potential impact on society and the economy. Ege and Tamay discuss the constraints on compute scaling, emphasizing energy and hardware limitations. Despite recent progress in AI models, they highlight the gap between current capabilities and true animal or human-level intelligence. The discussion also addresses the concept of an intelligence explosion, questioning whether exponential growth in software R&D can sustain itself. They explore the possibility of an AI-driven economy surpassing traditional human economies while acknowledging challenges such as power imbalances and regulatory hurdles. The speakers emphasize the importance of near-term actions to align AI systems effectively, given the difficulty of predicting long-term consequences. They also consider the arms race dynamics surrounding AI development and debate the practicality of superintelligence. While optimistic about partial automation leading to significant economic growth, they caution against overestimating the speed of transformation. The conversation concludes with reflections on fully automated firms and the role of central planning in AI-driven economies, alongside career advice for aspiring AI professionals.
19:48
19:48
Signs of an intelligence explosion include AI handling long-context tasks and achieving long-term goals.
40:16
40:16
AI surpassing human brain training compute could unlock sophisticated intelligence.
51:30
51:30
Companies with less compute and better vision can outperform incumbents.
1:00:57
1:00:57
Ege was hired for Epoch due to his extensive knowledge in economics and history.
1:23:49
1:23:49
Understanding AI deeply makes one more conservative about its capabilities.
1:45:03
1:45:03
AI accelerates change but poses risks of fast transformation.
2:03:38
2:03:38
Given high epistemic uncertainty about AI's future, classical liberalism and decentralization are advocated.
2:19:48
2:19:48
Intelligence isn't the bottleneck for technological or economic progress.
2:32:51
2:32:51
Willing to sacrifice understanding for advanced technology
2:41:32
2:41:32
Explosive growth will occur with AI that can flexibly substitute.
2:54:39
2:54:39
AIs have a massive advantage over humans due to their replicable and scalable nature.
2:54:43
2:54:43
Central planning could work with greater communication bandwidth and scalable models.
3:01:10
3:01:10
High-quality communication and being part of a community boosts career growth