scripod.com
#28 Michael Mauboussin: A Decision Making Jedi

Overview

Shownote

Highlights

Transcript

Chapters

Pins

#28 Michael Mauboussin: A Decision Making Jedi

The Knowledge Project

2018/01/23
The Knowledge Project

The Knowledge Project

2018/01/23
OverviewShownoteHighlightsTranscriptChaptersPins

Shownote

Michael Mauboussin returns for a fascinating encore interview on the Knowledge Project. We geek out on decision making, luck vs. skill, work life balance, and so much more. *** Michael Mauboussin is back as a returning guest on the Knowledge Project! He...

Highlights

In this thoughtful and wide-ranging conversation, Michael Mauboussin revisits core questions about how we think, decide, and live—with clarity, humility, and intention.
03:27
One should blend inside and outside views, relying more on base rates when there's more luck and more on one's experience when there's more skill
06:28
The NBA is the sport furthest from randomness, while ice hockey and baseball are closer
12:17
Even with similar training and software, employees show large variance in applying rules—this is 'noise'
18:10
Expertise requires a stable domain and quality feedback, and improving intuition demands deliberate practice
24:29
Invariant strategies—such as the present value of cash generated by financial assets—are foundational anchors in uncertain environments
30:28
Business incentives may not align with societal goods
39:48
Time is scarce, and thoughtful time-allocation—like choosing reading over TV—is essential for meaningful thinking
44:48
Scaling laws discovered by Jeffrey West apply to biological and social systems like cities and corporations
47:49
Larger cities are more efficient per capita (sublinear) but generate disproportionately more innovation and problems (superlinear)
53:25
They spend about 90% of their reading time on new books, but reread older works during research
59:03
Getting fired helped identify what I was bad at—like sales—as an introvert
1:01:39
Parents may not be as pivotal as thought; peer groups play a crucial role in child development

Chapters

What Are Base Rates—and Why Do They Keep Us Honest?
00:00
Where Does Luck End and Skill Begin?
06:28
Why Do Smart People Make Inconsistent Decisions?
12:17
When Should You Trust Your Gut—and When Should You Ignore It?
18:10
How Do Markets and Evolution Teach Us About Good Decisions?
24:29
What Happens When Algorithms Meet Real-World Chaos?
30:28
How Does Studying Ants, Cities, and Genes Change the Way We Think?
36:22
Which Books Rewired Your Understanding of Human Behavior?
42:10
Do Bigger Cities and Bigger Companies Scale the Same Way?
47:49
How Do You Build—and Live With—a Lifelong Library?
53:25
What Did Getting Fired Teach You About Who You Really Are?
56:15
How Do You Raise Kids, Stay Healthy, and Still Feel Like You're Growing?
1:01:39

Transcript

Shane Parrish: Hello, listeners. Welcome to the Farnam Street podcast called The Knowledge Project. I'm your host, Shane Parrish, the curator behind the Farnam Street blog, which is an online community focused on mastering the best of what other people hav...