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未来二十年会更繁荣么?与拉斯・特维德聊经济周期、中国创新与中美 AI 新格局 | S9E40

In this forward-looking discussion, veteran investor and author Lars Tvede offers a compelling vision of the global economy shaped by AI-driven deflation and innovation. Drawing from decades of experience across six business cycles, he challenges conventional fears about economic stagnation and technological bubbles, replacing them with a data-rich narrative of sustained growth and structural transformation in both the U.S. and China.
Tvede argues that low inflation combined with high innovation—fueled by AI, automation, and robotics—is creating a new era of'super cycles' where financial assets thrive even as consumer prices remain stable. He sees current AI investments not as a bubble but as a foundational shift, with U.S. capital spending on AI infrastructure already driving 40% of recent growth. In China, a deliberate pivot from real estate to strategic innovation and infrastructure has enabled a managed economic transition, positioning it as a leader in most critical future technologies. Despite geopolitical tensions, he believes 中美 AI ecosystems will remain interconnected through open-source collaboration. For investors, he advocates focusing on underlying enablers—industrial metals, energy, and supply chains—rather than just headline AI firms. With 25% of his portfolio in China and optimism rooted in long-term productivity gains, Tvede urges entrepreneurs and investors to embrace what he calls the'steam engine moment' of our time: a globally accelerated, AI-powered economic expansion.
07:10
07:10
The investor had an intuition before the 2008 financial crisis and profited from short-selling the market.
15:21
15:21
Economic theories can be turned into stories like crime fiction to make them more engaging.
18:16
18:16
In 2008, last-minute airport decisions to short the market paid off based on intuitive yet informed judgment.
29:47
29:47
Money from central banks fuels financial bubbles during low-inflation periods
33:26
33:26
AI is not a bubble because it will evolve rapidly
37:03
37:03
About 40% of recent US growth comes from AI-related equipment spending.
43:52
43:52
China leads in 57 out of 62 critical future technologies.
53:32
53:32
China leads globally in AI patent filings, showcasing its innovation capacity.
1:11:36
1:11:36
The sum of all AI will form an artificial civilization more capable than any single model.