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Cerebras's IPO goes vertical, and the death of OpenClaw? | E2287

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Today's show: Cerebras just jacked its IPO range to $150–$160 a share, OpenAI bought a consulting firm to seed its $4 billion private-equity joint venture, and a startup in Oakland is electrolyzing magnesium out of seawater for one-third the going price. Alex Wilhelm and Jason Calacanis go deep with AI21 co-CEO Ori Goshen on why model orchestration, not bigger LLMs, will decide who wins enterprise AI. The crew also covered the decline of OpenClaw, TikTok's new £3.99 ad-free tier, more entries in the live-show sidebar bounty, and had time for a little Off Duty before signing off. Guest Links: Ori Goshen on LinkedIn [https://il.linkedin.com/in/ori-goshen] AI21 [https://www.ai21.com/] Alex Grant on LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/biglithium/] Magrathea Metals [https://www.magratheametals.com/] Timestamps: 0:00 Ori Goshen, CEO of AI21 joins the show 1:20 Plaud: If your work depends on conversations — interviews, meetings, calls — you need a Plaud NotePin. You can check it out at https://Plaud.ai/twist and use code TWIST for 10% off! 5:14 Why enterprises care about token cost optimization 6:01 Jamba as open-weight; Maestro as proprietary orchestration 10:08 LinkedIn Jobs - Hire right, the first time. Post your first job and get $100 off towards your job post at https://LinkedIn.com/twist 12:56 AI21 customer roster: FNAC, US tech giants, Israeli companies 19:01 Alex Grant, CEO of Magrathea Metals joins to discuss pulling magnesium from seawater 20:03 Live video of the Oakland pilot electrolyzer 20:10 Deel - Founders scale faster on Deel. Set up payroll for any country in minutes, hire anyone anywhere, get visas handled fast, and get back to building. Visit https://deel.com/twist to learn more. 22:01 Magnesium as a "gateway metal" for aluminum, defense, aerospace 23:20 TETRA joint venture & the Evergreen Project in Arkansas 23:38 Series A close, JV economics: $3,000/ton vs. $7,000/ton market 29:10 Sidebar bounty update: Glass Sidebar (Oliver Choy) demo 30:47 Netsuite - Get the free business guide Demystifying AI at https://netsuite.com/twist 31:47 Sidebar bounty update: Sidecast (Patrick Hughes) demo 36:09 Reducing scope to "real-time fact checker only" for final round 37:24 Ro.co: Ro's insurance checker will let you know if your coverage includes GLP-1s for FREE. Go to https://Ro.co/Twist for your free insurance check. 39:07 Cerebras IPO: $115–$125 → $150–$160 per share 44:19 Will OpenAI's compute commitments to Cerebras actually get funded? 49:19 Fervo Energy IPO — venture-backed geothermal company going public 49:40 OpenAI Deployment Company + Tomoro acquisition explained 53:51 Anthropic's parallel $1.5B PE joint venture with Blackstone & Goldman 56:05 Why Jason thinks these PE spinouts are convoluted financial engineering 56:40 OpenClaw's decline + competition from Cowork, Perplexity, Grok 1:04:22 TikTok's £3.99 ad-free subscription launches in the UK 1:09:09 Knicks sweep 76ers — Jason's playoff predictions 1:11:24 Off-duty: "There Is No Antimemetics Division" by qntm 1:13:25 Off-duty: Fall of Civilizations podcast by Paul Cooper 1:16:37 States' rights, federalism, housing supply & closing thoughts Subscribe to the TWiST500 newsletter: https://ticker.thisweekinstartups.com [https://ticker.thisweekinstartups.com] Check out the TWIST500: https://www.twist500.com [https://www.twist500.com] Subscribe to This Week in Startups on Apple: https://rb.gy/v19fcp [https://rb.gy/v19fcp] Follow Lon: X: https://x.com/lons [https://x.com/lons] Follow Alex: X: https://x.com/alex [https://x.com/alex] LinkedIn: ⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexwilhelm [https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexwilhelm/] Follow Jason: X: https://twitter.com/Jason [https://twitter.com/Jason] LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasoncalacanis [https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasoncalacanis] Check out all our partner offers: https://partners.launch.co/ [https://partners.launch.co/] Great TWIST interviews: Will Guidara, [https://youtu.be/pvJa2pzuXWQ] Eoghan McCabe [https://youtu.be/9dHN4YFkgv4], Steve Huffman [https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/reddit-ceo-steve-huffman-on-mod-revolt-building-a/id315114957?i=1000617333424], Brian Chesky [https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/airbnb-ceo-brian-chesky-on-early-rejection-customer/id315114957?i=1000611761112], Bob Moesta, [https://youtu.be/y2UMzSqX94Q] Aaron Levie [https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/box-ceo-aaron-levie-breaks-down-box-ai-and-generative/id315114957?i=1000612384545], Sophia Amoruso [https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/sophia-amoruso-on-branding-raising-a-fund-portfolio/id315114957?i=1000601352978], Reid Hoffman [https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/reid-hoffman-on-ais-crescendo-moment-regulation-and/id315114957?i=1000612548498], Frank Slootman [https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/snowflake-ceo-frank-slootman-on-moving-the-needle-win/id315114957?i=1000602560622], Billy McFarland [https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/billy-mcfarland-on-fyre-fest-fraud-failure-hacking/id315114957?i=1000610922577] Check out Jason's suite of newsletters: https://substack.com/@calacanis [https://substack.com/@calacanis] Follow TWiST: Twitter: https://twitter.com/TWiStartups [https://twitter.com/TWiStartups] YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/thisweekin [https://www.youtube.com/thisweekin] Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thisweekinstartups [https://www.instagram.com/thisweekinstartups] TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thisweekinstartups [https://www.tiktok.com/@thisweekinstartups] Substack: https://twistartups.substack.com [https://twistartups.substack.com]

Highlights

This episode covers a range of topics from AI infrastructure and enterprise strategy to critical mineral supply chains and tech IPOs. The hosts discuss Cerebras's increased IPO price range, OpenAI's new consulting acquisition, and a startup's innovative method for extracting magnesium from seawater. A key interview with AI21's co-CEO explores why model orchestration, rather than larger models, is the key to winning in enterprise AI.
00:00
High-stakes 750-megawatt deal questioned
03:43
Maestro routes queries to the best model based on cost and success probability
05:17
Cost is a key concern as token usage surges
06:01
Jamba combines Transformer and Mamba architectures for efficiency.
10:08
Maestro automates model selection for enterprises.
16:34
Combining multiple models achieves better accuracy and cost savings
19:01
China controls 95% of magnesium supply.
20:06
Our facility is in Oakland, across the bay.
21:00
Producing pure magnesium from seawater
22:01
Magrathea Metals solved the environmental and cost issues of drying magnesium salts from seawater
23:20
Selling metal through a joint venture with TETRA
26:31
Producing magnesium at $3,000 per ton.
29:10
$5,000 bounty for a real-time AI agent.
30:47
NetSuite: AI-powered cloud ERP for seven-figure businesses
31:47
Oliver Choy demos Glass Sidebar, a live AI tool.
36:09
Focus only on real-time fact checking for podcasts
37:24
Dropped from 213 to the low 170s
41:44
50-70 times run-rate revenue is disconnected from typical PE ratios
44:19
Revenue may not justify the massive compute buildout.
49:19
OpenAI formalizes AI private equity push
49:40
Convoluted financial engineering.
53:51
Separating it could improve valuation metrics
56:05
Losing cash is manageable for them.
56:40
OpenClaw is a proof of concept, not the final solution.
1:04:24
Regulations lead to unnatural business moves.
1:09:09
Knicks sweep the 76ers
1:11:24
A secret organization fights memory-consuming anomalies.
1:13:25
A book exploring memory and time concepts similar to Nolan's films
1:16:39
Federalism allows state-level experimentation.

Chapters

Ori Goshen, CEO of AI21 joins the show
00:00
Plaud: If your work depends on conversations — interviews, meetings, calls — you need a Plaud NotePin. You can check it out at https://Plaud.ai/twist and use code TWIST for 10% off!
01:20
Why enterprises care about token cost optimization
05:14
Jamba as open-weight; Maestro as proprietary orchestration
06:01
LinkedIn Jobs - Hire right, the first time. Post your first job and get $100 off towards your job post at https://LinkedIn.com/twist
10:08
AI21 customer roster: FNAC, US tech giants, Israeli companies
12:56
Alex Grant, CEO of Magrathea Metals joins to discuss pulling magnesium from seawater
19:01
Live video of the Oakland pilot electrolyzer
20:03
Deel - Founders scale faster on Deel. Set up payroll for any country in minutes, hire anyone anywhere, get visas handled fast, and get back to building. Visit https://deel.com/twist to learn more.
20:10
Magnesium as a "gateway metal" for aluminum, defense, aerospace
22:01
TETRA joint venture & the Evergreen Project in Arkansas
23:20
Series A close, JV economics: $3,000/ton vs. $7,000/ton market
23:38
Sidebar bounty update: Glass Sidebar (Oliver Choy) demo
29:10
Netsuite - Get the free business guide Demystifying AI at https://netsuite.com/twist
30:47
Sidebar bounty update: Sidecast (Patrick Hughes) demo
31:47
Reducing scope to "real-time fact checker only" for final round
36:09
Ro.co: Ro's insurance checker will let you know if your coverage includes GLP-1s for FREE. Go to https://Ro.co/Twist for your free insurance check.
37:24
Cerebras IPO: $115–$125 → $150–$160 per share
39:07
Will OpenAI's compute commitments to Cerebras actually get funded?
44:19
Fervo Energy IPO — venture-backed geothermal company going public
49:19
OpenAI Deployment Company + Tomoro acquisition explained
49:40
Anthropic's parallel $1.5B PE joint venture with Blackstone & Goldman
53:51
Why Jason thinks these PE spinouts are convoluted financial engineering
56:05
OpenClaw's decline + competition from Cowork, Perplexity, Grok
56:40
TikTok's £3.99 ad-free subscription launches in the UK
1:04:22
Knicks sweep 76ers — Jason's playoff predictions
1:09:09
Off-duty: "There Is No Antimemetics Division" by qntm
1:11:24
Off-duty: Fall of Civilizations podcast by Paul Cooper
1:13:25
States' rights, federalism, housing supply & closing thoughts
1:16:37

Transcript

Jason Calacanis: This is one of the highest stakes games I've ever seen. Alex Wilhelm: A 750 megawatt Deel with OpenAI in January. It's not just insanity, it's insanity with a TWIST. Jason Calacanis: The question here is, what is that Deel with OpenAI wo...