Martin Casado argues that while the current AI boom echoes the dot-com era's energy, it is grounded in stronger fundamentals like real usage and revenue. He advocates for a market-first investment approach—prioritizing sectors with multiple strong players to identify emerging leaders—rather than betting solely on founder charisma. Despite high valuations, he believes we're still early in the cycle, with transformative potential in areas like AI-assisted coding and 3D content generation. However, enterprise adoption remains inconsistent due to misaligned incentives and poor integration. Casado warns against being distracted by AGI speculation, urging focus on practical applications that drive value. He also highlights a strategic blind spot: the U.S.'s underinvestment in open-source AI, leaving American firms dependent on Chinese models and weakening long-term competitiveness.