The next big breakthrough will be AIs learning on the job
Dwarkesh Podcast
Jun 26
The next big breakthrough will be AIs learning on the job
The next big breakthrough will be AIs learning on the job

Dwarkesh Podcast
Jun 26
This podcast explores the key research bets and challenges in developing artificial general intelligence (AGI), focusing on how AI labs are approaching training and learning. The discussion moves beyond simple scaling to examine the nuances of verifiability, grindability, and continual learning in AI systems.
The discussion centers on a major research bet: training AIs on millions of verifiable tasks across diverse environments could lead to AGI. However, progress is hindered by the 'grindability' problem, where real-world tasks lack deterministic simulators for parallel training, unlike coding or math. The podcast questions whether reinforcement learning from verifiable rewards (RLVR) can generalize from controlled settings to complex, long-horizon real-world tasks. A key challenge is getting learning back into the model's weights, with on-policy self-distillation (OPSD) proposed as a superior method for continual learning. 'Dreaming,' where AIs practice in self-built simulations, is suggested as a potential fourth scaling axis. Looking ahead to 2027-2028, the speaker envisions AI agents improving through real-world deployment, receiving work reviews, and using techniques like distillation and dreaming to expand their capabilities beyond initial verifiable domains.
00:00
00:00
Scaling can overcome current deficits like data inefficiency
02:12
02:12
A domain must be grindable for scalable AI training.
06:10
06:10
Deployment reveals valuable real-world learning opportunities
14:13
14:13
RL preserves existing knowledge better than supervised learning
15:22
15:22
Dreaming could become a fourth scaling axis
17:23
17:23
AI shifts from pre-deployment training to learning from deployment