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So are we in an AI bubble? Here are clues to look for.

Planet Money

5 DAYS AGO
Planet Money

Planet Money

5 DAYS AGO
The rapid rise of AI has sent stock valuations soaring, sparking intense debate over whether we're witnessing the inflation of a massive economic bubble. With trillions in market value tied to uncertain technological outcomes, economists are grappling with an age-old challenge: how to identify a bubble before it bursts — and whether doing so is even possible.
Economists are examining signs of a potential AI-driven market bubble, using historical patterns like high valuations, volatility, and new stock surges as clues. A 2019 research framework challenges the idea that bubbles are unpredictable, though its accuracy remains limited. While current markets show some red flags — especially in tech giants like NVIDIA — the lack of widespread new stock issuance weakens the bubble case. Unlike past crises, an AI bust may pose less systemic risk due to minimal bank exposure, but could still waste resources, such as underused data centers. Yet, speculation isn’t purely destructive: history shows that even failed booms, like the dot-com era, can leave behind valuable infrastructure and innovation. This raises a deeper question — should society fear all bubbles, or might some overinvestment actually accelerate progress?
05:55
05:55
NVIDIA's valuation hinges on uncertain AI chip demand and future performance.
08:41
08:41
High valuations, volatility, issuance, and acceleration are key bubble indicators.
14:13
14:13
Bubbles were not considered a serious issue by macroeconomists in the 1990s, especially in developed economies like the U.S.
22:43
22:43
Some bubbles can lead to beneficial overinvestment in technology and infrastructure.