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The SpaceX IPO, Fable 5, AI Capex Update & Market Check w/ Gavin Baker, Andrew Fox & Clark Tang | BG2

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The SpaceX IPO, Fable 5, AI Capex Update & Market Check w/ Gavin Baker, Andrew Fox & Clark Tang | BG2

BG2Pod with Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley

1 DAYS AGO
BG2Pod with Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley

BG2Pod with Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley

1 DAYS AGO
OverviewShownoteHighlightsTranscriptChaptersPins

Shownote

Brad Gerstner sits down with Gavin Baker and Andrew Fox of Atreides Management, alongside Altimeter partner Clark Tang, to break down one of the biggest questions in tech and markets: how should investors think about the SpaceX IPO? They unpack the major ...

Highlights

This podcast episode features a panel discussion on the upcoming SpaceX IPO, analyzing its valuation through the lenses of its core businesses and emerging AI compute capabilities. The conversation also covers the latest developments in frontier AI models, the economics of massive capital expenditure, and the competitive landscape between open-source and proprietary systems.
00:00
SpaceX is a must-own for space and AI investors.
03:13
55% IRR on Colossus I
13:28
SpaceX is reselling AI compute to Google and Anthropic.
24:35
Two-stage reusability reduces cost per kg from $1,500 to under $250.
26:01
Orbital data centers cost $5B per gigawatt vs $20-25B terrestrially
29:25
The model is the most overlooked upside for the SpaceX IPO.
35:05
SpaceX is a must-own for institutional investors
42:10
Benchmarks shift from snapshots to long-running tasks.
49:56
Long-running agents will drive massive token consumption
51:00
Frontier models capture 90% of revenue while open-source handles 80% of tokens.
1:06:57
Demand is outstripping supply
1:18:13
AI companies forecast to add a trillion in half the time

Chapters

Intro — SpaceX IPO in Two Days, Mythos Launches, Taiwan Takeaways
00:00
xAI's Google & Anthropic Deals: Highest Operating Profit Per Gigawatt
03:05
"Elon Web Services" — Nobody Had AI Compute in the SpaceX Model
13:28
Data Centers Are Not Commodities: First-Principles Design
19:08
Orbital Compute Economics: $5B Per Gigawatt in Space vs. $25B on the Ground
26:01
The Most Underrated Variable: What Cursor Does for xAI's Model
29:25
Bull & Bear Case — Can SpaceX Really 8X Revenue in 4 Years?
35:05
Post-IPO Drawdowns, Lock-Ups & How to Size the Position
37:00
Fable 5, Mythos & Why Snapshot Benchmarks Are Broken
43:56
Frontier vs. Open Source: 90% of Revenue Accrues at the Frontier
51:00
$1.5T in CapEx vs. $300B in AI Revenue — Does the Math Math?
1:04:11
The Next $1 Trillion: Three Companies, Half the Time
1:18:13

Transcript

Brad Gerstner: I think we're all pretty AI-pilled, and if you're AI-pilled. That means we've got to build a lot more compute than the world thinks, and that these models are going to be a lot more valuable than people think. You combine that with their cor...