TIP837: Adobe, Lululemon, PayPal – Are our Biggest Losers a Buy Now? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley
TIP837: Adobe, Lululemon, PayPal – Are our Biggest Losers a Buy Now? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley
TIP837: Adobe, Lululemon, PayPal – Are our Biggest Losers a Buy Now? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley
This episode is a candid review of how investment theses can weaken, even when the underlying businesses once appeared exceptional. The hosts examine falling share prices, changing competitive conditions, and the judgment required to decide whether to hold, sell, or invest.
Lululemon’s removal from the portfolio illustrates how slowing growth, stronger competition, discounting, and delayed recognition of changing conditions can turn a high-quality brand into a potential value trap. PayPal provides a lesson in abandoning a weakened thesis: improving margins and buybacks are not enough when leadership, execution, and investor confidence deteriorate, especially when capital could be deployed more effectively elsewhere.
Adobe presents a more balanced case. Its financial strength, distribution, and growing AI opportunities support the business, but execution risks and possible technological obsolescence require careful monitoring. The hosts also stress that qualitative understanding should precede valuation models; Trade Desk’s uncertain growth and limited visibility kept it outside the portfolio despite a lower price and insider purchases.
They remain more confident in CoStar, arguing that the market may overestimate risks surrounding Homes.com while undervaluing its durable commercial real estate data advantage. The discussion concludes that investors should review theses regularly, size positions according to conviction, remain patient without becoming complacent, and judge each holding by its current prospects rather than past losses. Flexibility, opportunity cost, and humility are essential because even excellent investors are frequently wrong.
00:00
00:00
Falling stocks can still teach valuable lessons
12:21
12:21
A premium brand can become a value trap
33:20
33:20
Sell when the thesis breaks, not just when prices fall
45:19
45:19
Strong businesses can still face dangerous disruption
58:40
58:40
Understand the business before trusting the model.
1:13:10
1:13:10
Buy businesses where the worst case remains tolerable
1:19:08
1:19:08
Even great investors are wrong four times in ten

