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The AI Demand Bubble with Ed Elson

Better Offline

1 DAYS AGO
Better Offline

Better Offline

1 DAYS AGO
Ed Zitron and Ed Elson dissect the latest tech earnings, revealing that the AI boom is largely a house of cards built on circular investments and inflated numbers. They break down how Big Tech's reported AI revenue is dangerously dependent on a few startups, and question whether the market is finally waking up to the bubble.
The hosts argue that a significant portion of AI revenue reported by Microsoft, Google, and Amazon is actually just spending from OpenAI and Anthropic, creating a circular system. They highlight how unrealized gains from AI startup stakes make earnings look better than they are, while Microsoft is uniquely penalized by accounting rules. The conversation turns to the fragility of this demand, noting that real-world adoption is minimal, with only 8% of Microsoft 365 users using Copilot. They warn that if the bubble bursts, these companies won't collapse but will lose their growth status and face lower valuations. The episode concludes with a look at the riskiest players, singling out Oracle as a potential casualty due to its heavy debt and flat revenue, while noting that some investors are starting to recognize the systemic risk.
03:15
03:15
Unrealized gains make these stocks look cheaper than they really are.
23:22
23:22
OpenAI and Anthropic account for 74% of Microsoft's AI revenue.
29:39
29:39
The demand for AI is not as large as promised.
44:02
44:02
If AI fails, these companies will survive but stop being growth companies.
47:05
47:05
Big tech is spending billions to look like growth companies.