TIP838: Google, Reddit, Amazon – Are Our Biggest Winners Still a Buy? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley
TIP838: Google, Reddit, Amazon – Are Our Biggest Winners Still a Buy? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley
TIP838: Google, Reddit, Amazon – Are Our Biggest Winners Still a Buy? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley
This episode explores what investors can learn from their biggest winners, missed opportunities, and the changing assumptions behind successful stock pitches.
The hosts review how Google, Amazon, and Reddit performed after entering the Intrinsic Value Portfolio. Alphabet benefited from an AI-driven shift in market perception, but its massive infrastructure spending has made the business more capital-intensive and its valuation harder to justify. They continue to hold it while acknowledging that quality does not make every price attractive. Amazon appears more compelling because of its lower valuation, AWS growth, custom chips, automation, and multiple ways to expand margins.
Reddit’s profitability and monetization improved, yet its reliance on Google Search, limited growth in logged-in users, and vulnerability to changes in web traffic led the hosts to reduce their position rather than buy more. Remitly was excluded because its business and investment thesis seemed less durable and understandable over the long term.
The discussion also examines multibaggers including TSMC, Dell, and Comfort Systems. Their success highlights the value of durable competitive advantages, strong industry demand, and holding exceptional businesses. However, each remains exposed to geopolitical, cyclical, valuation, or AI-spending risks. The hosts conclude that investors should focus on probability, valuation, mean reversion, and identifying the few winners capable of outweighing multiple mistakes.
02:53
02:53
Deep research creates stronger conviction.
12:33
12:33
Quality should not justify excessive prices
24:58
24:58
Strong demand can justify owning a costly compounder
35:46
35:46
Amazon offers upside with more protection if AI disappoints.
52:29
52:29
Reddit remains a hold, not a buy.
1:05:43
1:05:43
A changing business can break an investment thesis.
1:15:06
1:15:06
TSMC’s moat rests on technology and customer dependence
1:27:35
1:27:35
A few major winners can outweigh many losses

