🔬Scaling Past Informal AI - Carina Hong, Axiom Math
🔬Scaling Past Informal AI - Carina Hong, Axiom Math
🔬Scaling Past Informal AI - Carina Hong, Axiom Math
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In 2025, seven-month-old startup Axiom solved all 12 of the problems Putnam exam
[https://axiommath.ai/territory/from-seeing-why-to-checking-everything] (scoring
8/12 in the time limit) a prestigious undergraduate math exam. The 12/12 score
is better than the top undergraduates (110/120) and the closest AI system that
reported a result (DeepSeek 103/120), although it is unclear what the people and
other systems would have scored with more time. Nonetheless, the Putnam exam is
legendary for its difficulty, with the median score typically being 0 or 1
points. Taken by itself, this seems like a minor feather in the cap of AI; one
of a long series of accomplishments by AI systems in elite competitions with
humans, starting with Deep Blue beating Kasparov.
Fast forward to mid-2026, and Claude Code is eating the world. In 2024
Anthropic’s bet on code and enterprise looked like a more pragmatic niche play
vs. OpenAI’s better models and massive consume scale. Today, Amodei’s all in bet
on acceleration via code (images and video be damned) seems prescient.
Despite Anthropic’s growing momentum, however, Axiom CEO Carina Hong sees coding
ability as a necessary but not sufficient milestone on the path to AGI. Code
arguably pushes the jagged frontier to the point of super intelligence in some
domains outside of coding [https://www.latent.space/p/lupsasca], but there are
surprising gaps (link) that Carina believes will bottleneck AI progress. (Stats
on math benchmarks).
The informal bottleneck
“Verified AI” sounds like eating broccoli (footnote: I actually love broccoli,
but then again, I also believe strongly in Test Driven Development, so ¯\(ツ)/¯ )
and paying taxes, but to Axiom it means something very different. “Verification
to me is about scaling brilliance, compounding brilliance,” Carina told us.
It actually took a while for me to understand what she means by this. It sounded
like marketing-speak to me, until it clicked. Carina emphasizes an story about
legendary mathematician Srinivasa Ramanujan to illustrate the point. When G.H.
Hardy finally persuaded Ramanujan to formally prove theorems instead of relying
on his (formidable) intuition, it reportedly improved his own capabilities. This
is presumably because formally proving things forced Ramanujan to articulate the
details in a way that open up new lines of thinking, etc. This is one part of
“compounding.”
But formally proving things also allowed others to benefit from his intuition:
the proofs are way of communicating an intuition and persuading others that the
intuition is correct. This is scaling (more people use the result) and
compounding (people can learn from and build on his work).
This is the analogy that Carina wants us to focus on.
Verified Generation
There are two ways that Verified AI shows up: in training and in inference.
But a quick detour: to a first approximation, “Formal Verification” means using
type checkers
[https://towardsdatascience.com/introduction-to-lean-for-programmers/] (like for
TypeScript, C++ or Rust, but more capable) to verify mathematical proofs that
are meticulously specified using a language like Lean (footnote: Formal
verification also includes model checking (TLA+, SPIN), SMT-based tools (Dafny,
F*, Why3), and refinement-type systems (Liquid Haskell) — many of which don’t
look much like “type checking a proof” from the user’s perspective even when
there’s a similar logical core underneath. It also gets applied to software and
hardware correctness, not only pure mathematics.). It takes a lot of work to
translate an “informal” proof (albeit one that most people would not remotely
call “informal”) in to a Lean proof (footnote: This is an understatement. Most
theorems remain informal because formalization is so hard to do. There has been
a great deal of effort to formalize the most important proofs, with mixed
results)
You can imagine how this would be (very) useful during Reinforcement Learning:
instead of relying on best guesses based on statistics (GRPO, RLHF, etc.), you
can just verify the proof is correct using a Lean verifier. This is obviously a
much stronger reward signal, akin to compiling code and testing it (which is
what is typically done with RL on coding).
The catch: LLM are not (currently) very good at proving things with Lean.
Enter Axiom: While they have not officially reported benchmark numbers besides
the 12/12 Putnam result, Carina reports that they have achieved a very
impressive 99% (187/189) ProofGen on the Verina benchmark. This benchmark is to
generate code and proof of correctness for a series of problems. For context,
OpenAI o3 (the last known OpenAI run) achieved 4.9% on this benchmark.
Based on the sparse benchmarking, it’s hard to say what the frontier labs are
currently doing, but Carina suggests that they still are not training to
generate Lean proofs directly, rather relying on informal proofs.
Time will tell if the frontier labs’ current approaches will close this gap.
Scaling and compounding
Carina’s Ramanujan analogy is pretty direct. Better proofs → better Lean
generation → better RL. A stronger signal means higher sample efficiency and
higher maximum performance. Great!
Scaling is pretty clear too: once I have proved something in Lean, the quality
of the output is basically (footnote: one might argue that its a bit lower
because the proof is in distribution for the LLM) as high as if it came from a
human, so my high quality training set has grown in a way that an informal
rollout corpus cannot. I can trust my Lean proofs.
Compounding is also clear: now all of future inference and training can build
upon those proofs.
On the other hand, a model trained only using statistical signals like GRPO
during RL lacks the sample efficiency, maximum performance and compounding
corpus that a system that uses formal verification benefits from.
All roads lead to verification
Broccoli and taxes notwithstanding, “verification” has shown up in a lot of
conversations recently. In the in physical system control:
“I think [verifiability] is probably the hardest problem right now, because the
as the models get better, it can be harder and harder to find the faults on the
system. And so the problem of doing proper eval to find those faults, that
problem also keeps getting harder as the models get better.” -
In theoretical physics:
“…now that we’re in this regime where you can just get ChatGPT to tackle
thousands of questions at the same time, it will return proofs for a significant
fraction of them. Now actually the onus is back on the humans to verify all the
outputs. And so, yeah, as that becomes a bottleneck, I think formalizing math
and automating verification will become more valuable.” -
Verification is, in fact, the key differences between AI for science and AI for
computation: in science you to have to actually test (verify) your hypothesis by
performing physical experiments. Lab in the loop systems like Radical AI
[https://www.radical-ai.com/] and Lila [https://www.lila.ai/] build around
exactly this premise (we have recorded episodes with both of these teams and
will release them soon!)
And yes, formally verifying critical systems such as flight control, nuclear
power plants and pacemakers is a growing focus as the software and hardware that
run them becomes more complex.
Carina believes so strongly that AGI requires verified generation that she makes
the unqualified claim that “We do not believe there is any other possible
future.”
Expensive to produce, cheap to verify
Lean proofs are hard generate, but they can be easily shown to be correct or
incorrect. But how do you know that the proof you created maps correctly to the
problem you care about? As Carina puts it: “Anything that can be specified can
be proven. Humans are bad at specifying everything we want.”
Are we now in the specification business? Check out the episode to hear Carina’s
take, as well as:
* Why hardware verification is a killer app
* Details on the AXLE open API and recently released Discovery toolkit
* The Erdos debacle
* The OpenAI GPT-f diaspora
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