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$120 Oil Ahead?

The Markets

Shownote

The conflict in Iran has led to a significant spike in oil prices. What will determine the commodity’s next move, and how much higher could oil prices rise? Jerome Dortmans, co-head of Global Oil and Products Trading in Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets, discusses with Chris Hussey on the Goldman Sachs trading floor. Recorded on March 3, 2026.  The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs. A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs. Disclosures applicable to research with respect to issuers, if any, mentioned herein are available through your Goldman Sachs representative or at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html Goldman Sachs does not endorse any candidate or any political party. © 2026 Goldman Sachs. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices [https://megaphone.fm/adchoices]

Highlights

This episode dives into the immediate market implications of escalating tensions in the Middle East, focusing on how the Iran conflict is reshaping global oil supply dynamics and investor behavior.
00:04
20 million barrels of crude and 5 million barrels of products are at risk daily
03:05
Diesel, jet fuel, and light ends like LPGs, NGLs, and condensates are most at risk
06:21
The short in the market is now China and India, and the calculus of U.S. policy has changed
09:25
If the situation escalates, oil could trade between $100 and $120

Chapters

Why did oil jump $10—and what’s really at stake in the supply chain?
00:00
What makes $100 oil feel inevitable right now?
03:05
Why are investors selling instead of hedging—and what does that mean for inflation?
06:21
Could prices really hit $120—and what would push them there?
09:25

Transcript

Chris Hussey: This is The Markets. I'm Chris Hussey, and today is Tuesday, March 3rd, and I'm here on the Goldman Sachs trading floor. With Jerome Dortmans, who is co-head of Global Oil and Products Trading. Let's cut to the chase. Oil's up about $10 a bar...