Oil prices surged $10 amid disruptions threatening 25 million barrels per day of crude and refined products—highlighting acute vulnerabilities in global supply chains. Jerome Dortmans explains why the market’s initial reaction was muted but warns that prolonged conflict would rapidly drain inventories, given constrained pipelines, near-zero OPEC spare capacity, and Iraq’s halted output. Diesel, jet fuel, and light ends face particular strain, pushing prices toward $100/barrel imminently. Investor complacency—evident in profit-taking rather than hedging—contrasts with mounting inflationary risks across sectors. Though the U.S. is domestically self-sufficient, global pricing still dictates its market behavior, with China and India now holding key short positions. The trading bias remains structurally long, but highly sensitive to escalation—especially Red Sea developments—which could push prices to $100–$120 if tensions persist or widen.