Saras Sarasvathy shares her Mumbai-based entrepreneurial journey—from launching a lunch service to co-developing a water pump controller—to illustrate how real-world experimentation reveals hidden assumptions and human complexities that forecasts miss. When the controller failed catastrophically, causing water outages and eroding trust, she confronted the limits of planning and the danger of overestimating control. Drawing on her landmark research with expert founders, she contrasts effectual logic—starting with who you are, what you know, and whom you know—with causal logic that assumes predictable outcomes. Expert entrepreneurs embrace affordable loss, co-create with committed stakeholders, and pivot creatively when surprises arise, as seen in Airbnb and Post-it Notes. The episode underscores that meaningful progress emerges not from perfect foresight, but from iterative action, humility in the face of failure, and rethinking how talent, effort, and learning intersect in innovation.