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What Xi Jinping Wants

The Ezra Klein Show
This episode features a conversation with Kevin Rudd, a former Australian Prime Minister and ambassador to the US, who has written a book analyzing Xi Jinping's ideology. Rudd offers a unique perspective on the Chinese leader, drawing from decades of personal interactions and academic study to explain Xi's worldview, ambitions, and strategy for China's future.
Rudd argues that Xi Jinping's ideology is best understood as 'Marxist-Leninist nationalism,' a potent blend of communist doctrine and Chinese nationalism that frames China's rise as an inevitable historical struggle. He explains that Xi's tightening of party control stems from a deep fear of the Soviet Union's collapse, which Xi attributes to ideological and physical corruption. Economically, Xi prioritizes building a powerful industrial state through state-driven policies and surveillance, even at the cost of slower growth and private sector decline. Rudd warns that Xi views the United States as the primary obstacle to China's ambitions and aims for reunification with Taiwan by 2049. He advocates for a US policy of 'managed strategic competition' that accepts rivalry while managing red lines on Taiwan and cooperating on mutual interests like AI governance, cautioning that Xi might miscalculate American resolve, potentially leading to a conflict over Taiwan.
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Xi saw himself as a figure of history.
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Fear of capitalist erosion of communist ideology
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Marxist-Leninist nationalism is Xi's core ideology.
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Xi's ideological commitment to building a powerful industrial state remains unchanged.
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China has shifted from copying to leading in innovation.
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US commitment to Taiwan is rooted in congressional legislation and strategic credibility, not emotion.