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TIP852: Hermès and LVMH Stock: Time to Buy Luxury? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O'Malley

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TIP852: Hermès and LVMH Stock: Time to Buy Luxury? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O'Malley

The Investor's Podcast (We Study Billionaires) - The Investor’s Podcast Network

1 DAYS AGO
The Investor's Podcast (We Study Billionaires) - The Investor’s Podcast Network

The Investor's Podcast (We Study Billionaires) - The Investor’s Podcast Network

1 DAYS AGO
OverviewShownoteHighlightsTranscriptChaptersPins

Shownote

Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O’Malley revisit the two luxury houses they passed on last time — Hermès (EPA: RMS), the 189-year-old maker of the Birkin bag, and LVMH (EPA: MC), the 75-brand conglomerate behind Louis Vuitton, Dior, Tiffany, and Hennessy. Both st...

Highlights

Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O’Malley revisit Hermès and LVMH after major share-price declines, examining the luxury slowdown, China’s weakness, brand resilience, and whether either stock now offers enough margin of safety.
02:47
Luxury is less defensive than it appears
08:34
Luxury lost 70 million customers
11:05
Luxury pricing has gone too far for aspirational buyers
18:40
Hermès is a concentrated bet
25:12
Luxury’s rarest skill is balancing desire with access
29:29
LVMH is concentrated beneath the surface
41:47
The current downturn is a different animal
51:02
The U.S. is carrying the luxury industry
1:01:29
Fashion and leather have lost seven points of margin
1:05:14
The downturn may be late in its cycle
1:09:19
Hermès could deliver a 12%–13% return at €1,300
1:12:34
Waiting for blood in the streets
1:16:59
The ideal entry point would be a crash without brand damage

Chapters

Intro
00:00
About the state of the luxury market
02:35
How Hermès’ business has done since our first pitch
15:58
What makes LVMH and Hermès special
20:22
How LVMH’s business has done since our first pitch
31:30
How China is impacting the luxury market
33:23
How long past luxury downturns were
39:12
Why Hermès has an even better chance of recovering quickly
1:02:33
Valuation discussion
1:09:10
Intrinsic value of RMS
1:10:43
Intrinsic value of LVMH
1:12:26
Whether LVMH or RMS will be added to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio
1:12:51

Transcript

Shawn O'Malley: You're listening to TIP. Daniel Mahncke: Welcome back to the Investors Podcast. Today's episode is 852. And Sean and I actually had a one week break. No recordings of the two of us. And I can safely say that doesn't happen too often. So, y...