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TIP852: Hermès and LVMH Stock: Time to Buy Luxury? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O'Malley

Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O’Malley revisit Hermès and LVMH after major share-price declines, examining the luxury slowdown, China’s weakness, brand resilience, and whether either stock now offers enough margin of safety.
The episode argues that luxury is more cyclical than it once appeared because aspirational customers have retreated while the wealthiest continue spending. LVMH is more exposed to weaker fashion, leather, cognac, and middle-class demand, whereas Hermès benefits from scarcity and stronger access to top-tier customers, despite concentration risks. China’s property downturn and the absence of a new wave of luxury buyers make this recovery harder to time. Updated valuation work gives Hermès the better long-term profile, while LVMH remains above the hosts’ required hurdle rate. Neither company is added to the portfolio because the hosts want a more distressed entry point without lasting brand damage.
02:47
02:47
Luxury is less defensive than it appears
08:34
08:34
Luxury lost 70 million customers
11:05
11:05
Luxury pricing has gone too far for aspirational buyers
18:40
18:40
Hermès is a concentrated bet
25:12
25:12
Luxury’s rarest skill is balancing desire with access
29:29
29:29
LVMH is concentrated beneath the surface
41:47
41:47
The current downturn is a different animal
51:02
51:02
The U.S. is carrying the luxury industry
1:01:29
1:01:29
Fashion and leather have lost seven points of margin
1:05:14
1:05:14
The downturn may be late in its cycle
1:09:19
1:09:19
Hermès could deliver a 12%–13% return at €1,300
1:12:34
1:12:34
Waiting for blood in the streets
1:16:59
1:16:59
The ideal entry point would be a crash without brand damage