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CapEx is just Memory Tax Now, Deepseek V4 NAND impact

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CapEx is just Memory Tax Now, Deepseek V4 NAND impact

Semi Doped
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The hyperscaler memory tax quarter. More CapEx? Pssh. We knew flops needed scaling. But $25B at Microsoft alone just to pay higher component prices?  A memory tax. That's the news. NAND? Sold out. HBM? Sold out. What we cover: * SanDisk revenue +97% sequential. * 78% gross margin. Guidance above 80% next quarter. * Samsung HBM4 first to ship. Demand outstripping supply. * DeepSeek v4 goes SSD-centric. KV cache offloads to flash. * Microsoft: $25B of 2026 CapEx is just memory pricing. * Jassy: memory shortage pushes on-prem to AWS. * Qualcomm: mystery custom ASIC. Ships December. New Semi Doped with @vikramskr and @austinsemis. Check out our Substacks - https://www.viksnewsletter.com/  - https://www.chipstrat.com/ Chapters: 0:00 Intro and Vik goes full-time 5:15 Earnings week: the memory tax 7:26 Samsung HBM4 and the Gbps race 14:42 Is the memory tax worth it? 17:37 SanDisk and the SunDisk origin 23:22 78% gross margins and 5-year supply lock-ins 29:29 DeepSeek v4 and SSD-centric inference 38:49 Hyperscaler CapEx and the cloud pull 42:49 AI accelerators: TPU, Trainium, MTIA

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