CapEx is just Memory Tax Now, Deepseek V4 NAND impact
Semi Doped
May 04
CapEx is just Memory Tax Now, Deepseek V4 NAND impact
CapEx is just Memory Tax Now, Deepseek V4 NAND impact
Semi Doped
May 04
Unprocessed episode, you can be the first!
The hyperscaler memory tax quarter.
More CapEx? Pssh. We knew flops needed scaling.
But $25B at Microsoft alone just to pay higher component prices?
A memory tax. That's the news.
NAND? Sold out. HBM? Sold out.
What we cover:
- SanDisk revenue +97% sequential.
- 78% gross margin. Guidance above 80% next quarter.
- Samsung HBM4 first to ship. Demand outstripping supply.
- DeepSeek v4 goes SSD-centric. KV cache offloads to flash.
- Microsoft: $25B of 2026 CapEx is just memory pricing.
- Jassy: memory shortage pushes on-prem to AWS.
- Qualcomm: mystery custom ASIC. Ships December.
New Semi Doped with @vikramskr and @austinsemis.
Check out our Substacks
- https://www.viksnewsletter.com/
- https://www.chipstrat.com/
Check out our Substacks
- https://www.viksnewsletter.com/
- https://www.chipstrat.com/
Chapters:
0:00 Intro and Vik goes full-time
5:15 Earnings week: the memory tax
7:26 Samsung HBM4 and the Gbps race
14:42 Is the memory tax worth it?
17:37 SanDisk and the SunDisk origin
23:22 78% gross margins and 5-year supply lock-ins
29:29 DeepSeek v4 and SSD-centric inference
38:49 Hyperscaler CapEx and the cloud pull
42:49 AI accelerators: TPU, Trainium, MTIA
0:00 Intro and Vik goes full-time
5:15 Earnings week: the memory tax
7:26 Samsung HBM4 and the Gbps race
14:42 Is the memory tax worth it?
17:37 SanDisk and the SunDisk origin
23:22 78% gross margins and 5-year supply lock-ins
29:29 DeepSeek v4 and SSD-centric inference
38:49 Hyperscaler CapEx and the cloud pull
42:49 AI accelerators: TPU, Trainium, MTIA
