Sebastian Mallaby argues that OpenAI faces a severe cash crunch within 18 months due to unsustainable spending and low revenue conversion, despite massive fundraising. He contrasts this with Anthropic's focused enterprise strategy, suggesting an OpenAI-specific bubble rather than a general AI bubble. While AI progress is real, Meta selling excess compute capacity signals market rationalization. Mallaby criticizes Sam Altman's potential pursuit of a government bailout, arguing OpenAI is not strategically unique. He notes that Chinese AI, exemplified by models like DeepSeek, is advancing faster than expected, nearly matching US capabilities despite chip restrictions. Mallaby calls for US-China collaboration on AI safety and non-proliferation, comparing the risk to Cold War nuclear strategy. He concludes that technology's logic will eventually force government action, potentially straining relations between Silicon Valley and Washington.