The Next War Is Already Here. The West Isn't Ready. — Yaroslav Azhnyuk, The Fourth Law & Guest Host Noah Smith, Noahpinion
Latent Space: The AI Engineer Podcast
2 DAYS AGO
The Next War Is Already Here. The West Isn't Ready. — Yaroslav Azhnyuk, The Fourth Law & Guest Host Noah Smith, Noahpinion
The Next War Is Already Here. The West Isn't Ready. — Yaroslav Azhnyuk, The Fourth Law & Guest Host Noah Smith, Noahpinion

Latent Space: The AI Engineer Podcast
2 DAYS AGO
Yaroslav Azhnyuk, a tech entrepreneur who transitioned from building pet cameras to founding an AI-guided drone company, discusses the transformation of warfare in Ukraine. He explains how FPV drones have become the dominant weapon on the battlefield, causing the majority of casualties and rendering traditional heavy armor increasingly obsolete. The conversation covers the rapid evolution of drone technology, from fiber optic links to full autonomy, and the critical role of AI in modern combat.
Azhnyuk details the five levels of drone autonomy, from terminal guidance to fully autonomous missions, and argues that AI will soon make non-autonomous weapons morally indefensible due to reduced collateral damage. He warns that the West is falling dangerously behind in drone technology and manufacturing capacity, particularly compared to China, which could produce billions of drones. The discussion highlights key vulnerabilities in Western supply chains, including thermal cameras and rare earth refining, and criticizes European defense spending for focusing on outdated platforms like tanks instead of scalable drone systems. Azhnyuk emphasizes that the gap between Ukraine's battlefield-proven drone capabilities and Western readiness is widening, and that weakness invites conflict. He concludes that the only path to peace is to be prepared for war by investing in mass-produced, software-defined defense systems.
00:00
00:00
China could produce 4 billion drones
04:52
04:52
The surreal early days of the war
09:19
09:19
Fighting back is the only morally right choice
10:42
10:42
Survival takes priority over hypothetical future misuse.
14:02
14:02
Autonomy modules range from terminal guidance to autonomous navigation.
22:17
22:17
AI overcomes radio link loss at long distances
25:33
25:33
Drones cause 70-80% of casualties, dethroning artillery.
28:30
28:30
FPV drone is three orders of magnitude more cost-effective
45:06
45:06
Drones are more precise than mortars.
45:32
45:32
Using weapons without AI will become immoral.
51:34
51:34
Autonomous suicide drones will eliminate human infantry.
1:21:53
1:21:53
Weakness provokes conflict.
1:31:37
1:31:37
Broken assurances incentivize nuclear proliferation.
1:32:58
1:32:58
Ukraine leads in several drone categories despite Russia's overall advantages
1:51:08
1:51:08
Cost-effectiveness and scalability are key in modern warfare.
1:58:19
1:58:19
If you want peace, be prepared for war.